英國2029年預估人口增長超越7千萬
According to Office for National Statistics (ONS) projections from October 2017, the UK's population was estimated to be 65.6 million in 2016, and it was expected to surpass 70 million by mid-2029. This projection marked a 3.6 million, or 5.5%, increase over the decade from 2016 to 2026. This prediction was two years later than the ONS's 2014 estimate, which had anticipated the UK population to reach 70 million by mid-2027.
Life expectancy growth was adjusted to 83.4 years for men and 86.2 years for women, down from 84.3 and 87.1, respectively.
The ONS anticipated that 54% of the population growth would result from net international migration, while the remaining 46% would be due to more births than deaths.
Projected population growth for different parts of the UK over the decade from mid-2016 was estimated at 5.9% for England, 4.2% for Northern Ireland, 3.2% for Scotland, and 3.1% for Wales. These projections did not take into account any potential impacts from Brexit.
Brexit had introduced uncertainties into population growth projections, as they depended on factors such as post-Brexit agreements, net migration levels, and fertility rates. The ONS expected a slower rate of increased life expectancy and a decline in net migration, affecting population growth. However, the exact impact of Brexit remained uncertain and could influence decisions related to infrastructure development and planning.
As of October 2017, the ONS projected the UK's population to surpass 70 million by mid-2029, with adjustments in assumptions regarding migration, fertility rates, and life expectancy contributing to the updated estimates.